A spatial multi-criteria framework to define priorities in wildfire management programs

Abstract

The intensification of wildfires in Portugal has highlighted the urgent need for technical tools capable of supporting more effective risk mitigation decisions. In particular, the lack of explicit criteria for prioritizing the implementation of wildfire mitigation programs has contributed to reactive and fragmented interventions that are often misaligned with actual levels of hazard and exposure. This study proposes a spatially explicit methodology for classifying and ranking villages in wildfire-prone territories under two operational programs: Protection of People, Assets and Fuel Management. The framework was applied to eight municipalities across three Portuguese regions with high wildfire recurrence, using a multi-criteria decision analysis approach (AHP) integrated with geospatial data. Five physical and social variables were considered: critical area, vegetation cover, fire history, slope, and population density. Expert-derived weights were incorporated into two program-specific models. Implementation priority levels were generated using standard deviation classification at both municipal and regional scales. The results reveal marked territorial contrasts and strong intra-municipal variability, particularly in heterogeneous landscapes. A high degree of convergence between the two programs was observed (79-90%), although 10-21% of villages shifted between priority classes. The dual-scale analysis shows how a small number of high-hazard municipalities disproportionately shape the overall priority structure. The proposed framework supports more transparent, consistent, and risk-informed prioritization, strengthening territorial wildfire governance and complementing national mitigation programs such as "Safe Villages" and "Safe People" and "Condominium of Villages".