Multi-scale residential fire susceptibility in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area

Abstract

Urban fires are one the major threats to the security of the urban population. Given their spatial context, they have a direct impact on the economy, inhabitants, and destruction of property and heritage in the community. In the Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA), almost 75% of the urban fires occurred in residential buildings between 2006 and 2020 and were recorded with 150 deaths and 275 severely injured victims. Despite the damages caused by urban fires in LMA, there is a lack of studies on the predisposing factors of residential fire susceptibility and susceptibility zonation at the parish and building levels. This study constructed a residential fire susceptibility model using the information value method, a dataset of socio-economic and building predisposing factors, and an urban fires database for the period 2006-2020. The results suggest that the nearest suburban municipalities from Lisbon record the highest susceptibility to residential fires. Allied with geographic information techniques, these detailed studies are crucial for suited risk reduction strategies and proper urban planning in metropolitan areas.