Epistemic uncertainty of the structural response of RC members under cyclic loading due to different material modelling choices

Abstract

Performance-based earthquake engineering methods rely heavily on nonlinear dynamic analysis to determine structural performance. Given the significant number of existing structural and material modelling approaches, the epistemic uncertainty associated to the definition of an analytical model must be quantified, since it will have a considerable effect in the demand and capacity values obtained from the analysis. In this context, the proposed study addresses the quantification of the uncertainty associated to different modelling choices that should be accounted for when developing the analytical model of the structure. The study analyses the performance of different distributed plasticity models of reinforced concrete columns, considering different modelling choices for the constitutive materials. The comparison of the numerical results obtained with experimental data highlighted the impact of the modelling options. Generic error values are presented for each modelling strategy and for different structural demand parameters. General statistical values for the overall variability are also summarized and practical considerations regarding key issues are presented.