Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/10216/71316
Author(s): | Álvaro Aguiar Manuel Mota Freitas Martins |
Title: | Trend, Cycle, and Non-linear Trade-off in the Euro Area 1970-2001 (FEP Working Paper Nº 122, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto, Março 2003) |
Issue Date: | 2003 |
Abstract: | This paper presents new tests and estimates of the Phillips trade-off in the Euro Area, carried out in a unobserved components model with possibly non-linear Phillips and Okun relations, using quarterly aggregate data for the period 1970:I-2001:II. A concept of forward-looking near-rational expectations is introduced in the model, improving on the contradiction between rational expectations and evidence of inflation inertia. The Phillips curve turns out to be linear and its trade-off statistically significant, while non-linearity shows up in the Okun relation. The trend-cycle decompositions capture the main features of the Euro Area recente macroeconomic record. |
Subject: | Economia, Economia e gestão Economics, Economics and Business |
Scientific areas: | Ciências sociais::Economia e gestão Social sciences::Economics and Business |
URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/10216/71316 |
Document Type: | Trabalho Académico |
Rights: | openAccess |
License: | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ |
Appears in Collections: | FEP - Trabalho Académico |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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40196.pdf | FEP Working Paper Nº 122, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto, Março 2003 | 431.76 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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