Cascading continental-scale floods across Europe in 1342-1343

Abstract

Europe has experienced extreme floods in recent decades. However, even larger floods are possible and must be considered in flood risk management. Their characteristics can be clarified by analysing the largest documented historical floods. In Central Europe, the Magdalena Flood of July 1342 is usually considered the largest of the last millennium; however, knowledge of its characteristics is incomplete. Here we show that 16 major flood events occurred across much of Europe between late 1341 and 1343. Four of these events had return periods of 500-1,000 years (the Magdalena, Bartholomew, Candlemas and Jacob Floods). Although Magdalena was thought previously to be the only extreme European flood in 1342, our new documentary dataset suggests that it formed part of a broader sequence. The year with the greatest number of extreme floods during the past 700 years was 1342, and 1343 ranks among the top ten. This highly unusual sequence of floods had substantial socio-economic impacts, including a paradigm shift in flood mitigation measures in Europe. A series of volcanic eruptions along with multi-annual Arctic sea ice retreat is a plausible cause of this flood sequence. Clusters of extreme floods occurring within a few months are rarely considered in risk management. Quick and proactive risk strategies are needed that account for this eventuality.