Conmebol Libertadores: A Evolução Do Equilíbrio Competitivo Do Principal Torneio Continental De Clubes Da América Do Sul Entre 2000 E 2024

Abstract

Research Question: Academic research on competitive balance in football is concentrated in European tournaments, which indicates a scarcity of studies focused on South American football. Thus, this study will use the body of literature focused on European football, which indicates a decline in competitive balance in the UEFA Champions League, to investigate the CONMEBOL Libertadores. Aims: similar to that investigated by Triguero-Ruiz and Avila-Cano (2023), the general objective of the study is (i) to evaluate the ex post competitive balance of the CONMEBOL Libertadores group stage between 2000 and 2024, with the specific objectives being (ii) to identify, whether the groups between 2000 and 2024 were balanced with each other; (iii) to verify whther there is a difference in competitive balance after the groups are drawn based on the CONMEBOL Ranking, and, finally, (iv) to analyze whether there is a relationship between the levels of exx ante and ex post competitive balance between 2016 and 2024. Method: from the later metrics (ex post), the data collected related to the group stage between the 2000 edition and 2024, while for the earlier measures (ex ante) the CONMEBOL club rankings for the period between 2016 and 2024 were taken into account. Like Triguero-Ruiz and Avila-Cano (2023), the distance to competitive balance (DCB) index will be used to measure the indicators. Results: it was observed that the competitive balance of the CONMEBOL Libertadores group stage remained stable in the period between 2000 and 2024. No predictive relationship was found between the ex ante and ex post indices between 2016 and 2024, and the DCB values were not significantly different between the pre and post ranking periods. On the other hand, 48,3% of the 201 groups analyzed were outsider the confidence interval, showing that there are easier paths than others in the competition. Final Considerations: Geography, fans, refereeing and the schedule of matches are factors that help to understand the competitive balance in CONMEBOL Libertadores, and future studies are needed to futher analyze the impact of these adjacent data on the competitiviness of the tournament.