The Influence of Populism on the Volatility of Stock Markets

Abstract

This paper examines the influence of populism on stock market volatility, considering 21 countries analyzing data from December 1961 to April 2022. The regression approach is used to analyze in this study. The analysis uses the HAC Newey-West estimator to handle heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. The study's model regresses stock market volatility on populism status, incorporating control variables like economic indicators. Our results show that the stock market's behavior will react when a populist party leads the government. In Asia, our findings indicate South Korea and Taiwan demonstrate a positive relationship with stock market volatility, whereas India and Indonesia show a negative relationship between them. Most European countries exhibited an inverse correlation between the status of populism and stock market volatility. Conversely, most countries in South America have a positive correlation between the status of populism and stock market volatility. Both countries in North America have not significant in the level. These empirical findings make a valuable contribution to the field of behavioral finance by providing insights into financial markets and political uncertainty driven by populism. Our results have implications for investors, regulators, and cooperators in making well-informed decisions and strategic planning to maintain market movements. (c) The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2025.