Physical vulnerability of buildings to rainfall and earthquake induced landslides in the Lisbon metropolitan area

Abstract

This study assesses the physical vulnerability of buildings in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) to landslides triggered by rainfall and earthquakes. The susceptibility to rainfall-induced landslides was evaluated using the Information Value statistical model and validated through ROC curve analysis. Additionally, the susceptibility to earthquake-induced landslides was assessed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process, validated with historical landslide data. The vulnerability assessment considered all residential buildings registered by the 2011 Census, incorporating various parameters, such as the presence of reinforced structures, the number of floors, the conservation status, and the need for structural and non-structural repairs. These parameters, along with their respective weights, were determined based on expert opinion and literature. The analysis and the results reported in this paper revealed significant regional interactions between earthquake- and rainfall-triggered landslides, which can lead to complex damage scenarios for exposed buildings. This study not only contributes to enhancing our understanding of the physical vulnerability of buildings to rainfall- and earthquake-triggered landslides but also provides valuable insights for decision-makers and practitioners involved in hazard and risk management.