Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10216/100591
Author(s): R. Gonçalves
A. A. Pinto
Title: Nonlinear Prediction in Complex Systems Using the Ruelle-Takens Embedding
Issue Date: 2010
Abstract: We exploit ideas of nonlinear dynamics in a complex non-deterministic dynamical setting. Our object of study is the observed riverflow time series of the Portuguese Paiva river whose water is used for public supply. The Ruelle-Takens delay embedding of the daily riverow time series revealed an intermittent dynamical behavior due to precipitation occurrence. The laminar phase occurs in the absence of rainfall. The nearest neighbor method of prediction revealed good predictability in the laminar regime, but we warn that this method is misleading in the presence of rain. We present some new insights between the quality of the prediction in the laminar regime, the embedding dimension, and the number of nearest neighbors considered.
Description: We exploit ideas of nonlinear dynamics in a complex non-deterministic dynamical setting. Our object of study is the observed riverflow time series of the Portuguese Paiva river whose water is used for public supply. The Ruelle-Takens delay embedding of the daily riverow time series revealed an intermittent dynamical behavior due to precipitation occurrence. The laminar phase occurs in the absence of rainfall. The nearest neighbor method of prediction revealed good predictability in the laminar regime, but we warn that this method is misleading in the presence of rain. We present some new insights between the quality of the prediction in the laminar regime, the embedding dimension, and the number of nearest neighbors considered.
Subject: Matemática
Mathematics
Scientific areas: Ciências exactas e naturais::Matemática
Natural sciences::Mathematics
URI: https://repositorio-aberto.up.pt/handle/10216/100591
Source: DISCRETE DYNAMICS AND DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS. Proceedings of the Twelfth International Conference on Difference Equations and Applications
Document Type: Capítulo ou Parte de Livro
Rights: restrictedAccess
Appears in Collections:FCUP - Capítulo ou Parte de Livro

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