Health and economic burden of wildland fires PM2.5-related pollution in Portugal - A longitudinal study

Abstract

Portugal has been affected by wildland fires that destroy thousands of hectares of forest, causing damage to the environment and to the exposed populations. This study aims to assess the influence of wildland fire emissions on air quality, its effect on population health and the related costs, between 2015 and 2018 in Portugal. The cause-specific mortality due to PM2.5 was calculated considering the exposure for five endpoints in adults, twelve age groups for adults and considering children under five years old. The contribution of wildfire emissions to PM2.5 concentrations in Portugal was assessed through EMEP-MSC/W model. Results showed that the average annual fire emissions of PM2.5, CO, CH4, CO2 and NO2 a significant and continuous increase was observed during the first three years (2015, 2016 and 2017) for all pollutants, followed by a decrease in 2018, with values lower than those observed in 2015. Regarding the long-term exposure to PM2.5 emitted by fires a total of 32, 93, 189 and 31 deaths, corresponding to a cost of 59, 174, 360 and 60 million EUR in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively, were estimated. On the other hand, in the first three years an increase in years of life lost (YLL) values of 496, 1608 and 3092 was observed, corresponding to a cost of 16, 54 and 105 million EUR, respectively, followed by a decrease in 2018 with a YLL of 480, corresponding to a cost of 17 Meuro.