A combined approach using structural equation modeling and analytic hierarchy process in hub airports selection

Abstract

This study presents a method to assist airlines in selecting a hub airport using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) combined with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This approach aims to determine the most essential elements in this selection process using observed variables collected from 300 major airports worldwide. Research on key aspects for hub airport selection is still scarce in the literature. Furthermore, most studies rely on multicriteria analyses with weights obtained through expert interviews, potentially introducing subjectivity. Therefore, this paper presents a unique approach: criteria and sub-criteria values in the AHP are determined by the results achieved in the SEM, providing a reliable scale of priorities among variables in the process of choosing a hub. The SEM tested two hypotheses that were supported by comparing two latent variables related to airport and region characteristics with another latent variable referring to aspects present in the activity of the dominant airline within each facility. Subsequently, an AHP was implemented, with criteria and sub-criteria weights based on the standardized loading factors and regression coefficients from the SEM, using sets of airports for each established world region in the study. Results indicated that airport characteristics, particularly those related to the passenger terminals, have a greater influence on the main carrier activity than region characteristics. A regional analysis revealed that in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, this predominance is even more pronounced, whereas in Asia-Pacific region, there is a contrary trend in which the socioeconomic factors of the city appear to be more important than airport infrastructure. The weights assigned in the AHP, based on SEM values, confirmed cohesion between the two stages of the proposed model.