The Caregiver Support Ratio in Europe: Estimating the Future of Potentially (Un)Available Caregivers

Abstract

The caregiver support ratio (CSR) is defined as the number of potential caregivers aged 45–64 years, the most common caregiving age range, for each person aged 80+, the subgroup of older adults most at risk of needing long-term services and support. This study uses data from the CENSUS HUB database and from the UN database to calculate the current (last year available: 2011) and projected (2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050) CSR for a group of European countries. Mediterranean countries, France, Belgium, and Sweden presented the lowest CSR (5:1) in 2011. The countries with the highest CSR were Slovakia (9:1) and Ireland, Poland, Cyprus, and Malta (8:1). The estimated CSR is expected to progressively decline from 6:1 (2011) to 2:1 (2050) for all countries. Although differences in the CSR exist between countries, the number of people aged 45–64 who are available to care for each person aged 80+ will decrease uniformly in the coming decades. Cross-national challenges for gerontological social policies and healthcare provision are expected due to the increasing demand for long-term care among the oldest population.