Improved assessment of maximum streamflow for risk management of hydraulic infrastructures. A case study

Abstract

Understanding the risks associated with the likelihood of extreme events and their respective consequences for the stability of hydraulic infrastructures is essential for flood forecasting and engineering design purposes. Accordingly, a hydrological methodology for providing reliable estimates of extreme discharge flows approaching hydraulic infrastructures was developed. It is composed of a preliminary assessment of missing data, quality and reliability for statistically assessing the frequency of flood flows, allied to parametric and non-parametric methods. Model and parameter uncertainties are accounted for by the introduced and proposed modified model averaging (modified MM) approach in the extreme hydrological event's prediction. An assessment of the parametric methods accuracy was performed by using the non-parametric Kernel Density Estimate (KDE) as a benchmark model. For demonstration and validity purposes, this methodology was applied to estimate the design floods approaching the case study 'new Hintze Ribeiro bridge', located in the Douro river, one of the three main rivers in Portugal, and having one of Europe's largest river flood flows. Given the obtained results, the modified MM is considered a better estimation method.