Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10216/143320
Author(s): Brandão, D
Ribeiro, O
Teixeira, L
Paúl, C
Title: Perceived risk of institutionalization, hospitalization, and death in oldest old primary care patients
Publisher: Elsevier
Issue Date: 2020
Abstract: Objectives: This study aims to analyze the accuracy and predictive ability of the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC) scored by general practitioners (GPs) in a sample of primary care patients aged 80+ with perceived mental health concerns. Method: GPs ranked the perceived risk of the three adverse outcomes (hospitalization, institutionalization and death) at 1 year in a five Likert scale (RISC score), where 1 is the lowest risk and 5 is the highest. Follow up contacts were conducted after 1 year of assessment in order to collect data on the three outcomes. Results: The 1-year proportion of institutionalization, hospitalization and death were 12.1 %, 25.2 % and 19.0 % respectively. Based upon the sensitivity and specificity from the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, we found an optimal cut-off point of ≥4 for the RISC. The RISC had fair accuracy for 1-year risk of institutionalization (Area Under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.75, 95% CI 0.43-0.68) and hospitalization (AUC = 0.65, 95% CI 0.52-0.78), but not for death (AUC = 0.55, 95% CI 0.43-0.68). Conclusions: The RISC as a short global subjective assessment is to be considered a reliable tool for use by GPs. Our results showed that RISC seems to be a good instrument to triage very old people at risk for institutionalization but with poor accuracy at predicting hospitalization and limited predictive ability for death, suggesting further research and caution on this instrument’s use.
Subject: Portugal
Oldest old
Primary care patients
Hospitalization
Institutionalization
Death
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10216/143320
Source: Arch Gerontol Geriatr. 2020 Mar-Apr;87:103974
Related Information: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/PEst-OE/SAU/UI0688/2014/PT
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/ARH/SFRH/BD/101595/2014/PT
Document Type: Artigo em Revista Científica Internacional
Rights: restrictedAccess
Appears in Collections:ISPUP - Artigo em Revista Científica Internacional

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