Método Geral de Análise de Hídricas

Abstract

Over the past few years, we have been witnessing an increase regarding environmental issues, which has lead, among several things, in an increase in investments in renewable energies in Portugal. The increasing penetration of renewable energies at a national perspective, along with the low oil price, makes the growth provisions for energy prices in the Iberian Market close to zero, for the upcoming years. Some of those provisions, the most pessimistic ones, forecast a decrease in future prices. As a result of the current situation, companies have a much more conservative behavior regarding future investments in hydroelectric plants, leading to a stricter analysis of investments by investors. In this dissertation, it will be present which steps have be follow to carry out a correct and rigorous investment analysis of a Dam. Based on the project plan, the investments made, the payments and receipts throughout the construction and exploration phase, an Investment analysis will be carried out to assess the project's viability. In this analysis, indicators such as IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value) will be used. The analysis of these indicators and the comparison between IRR with the WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital), will give the validation whether the investment is viable, leading to future capital gains for the company. In order to obtain more accurate data, a risk analysis was carried out, and several scenarios were tested using a Monte Carlo Simulation, a method that proved to be very useful in the study of the viability of investments.