Estimação e validação da probabilidade de falha estrutural pelo método de Monte Carlo - formulações clássica e bayesiana

Abstract

One of the main problems in structural reliability analysis of laminated composites is the possible existence of multiple MPP (Most Probable failure Point). The problem is similar to the existence of several local minima in structural optimization. Indeed, a local MPP may not correspond to the most unfavorable situation, in terms of failure probability of the structure. In this work, it is used the Hasofer-Lind method to calculate the probability of failure for several fixed loads. To validate the results obtained through this methodology, the classical method and the Bayesian method using Monte Carlo simulation are considered. Using a particular example, the validation process demonstrates an agreement between both methods to estimate the probability of failure of the laminated composite structures.