Impact on some planning decisions from a fuzzy modelling of power systems

Abstract

In this paper, system component reinforcements are analyzed from the perspective of their impact in increasing flexibility in system design. The proposed framework integrates a fuzzy optimal power flow model through which one can derive, as a function of load uncertainties, possibility distributions for generation, power flows and power not supplied. Exposure and robustness indices, based on risk analysis concepts, are defined. These indices can be used to rank the expansion alternatives, giving the planner insight to system behavior in the face of adverse futures. Their use in conjunction with investment assessments is proposed as a necessary step in a decision making methodology.